Sunday, January 24, 2016

BP's LINGO LEGEND

Because there are always newcomers looking to learn and trade(well, I look to learn everyday,Always a Student of the Mkt)  #StayHumble  But these r just sum quik abbreviations I and others use  because typing full out in chat can impede trading.

* notice i didnt say ''newbie''
i have respect for All that dare to venture into Trading,and wish them well, and hope I can help**

I put together Ref Sheet. as too much typing intraday is a negative-

 
FIBZ
FTS - Fib Trend Supp= 38.2%  Ret from Given High
FTR  -Fib Trend Rez  = 38.2%  Bounce  from Recent Low
FIC   -Fibz in Conflict , When a longer term draw Up/Down
          Has Shorter or New Draw in Conflict-
            ** Choppy area,Not a Clean Set up

FIBVOT(the 'B' is Silent, 8^))
        = the 61.8% Rez ,Where as a Bar Close per time frame
            above or below Can flip trend and may resolve
            F.I.C thus Clearing way for cleaner set up
===============================================
PDH  PREVIOUS DAY HIGH
PDL   PREVIOUS DAY LOW
PWH/PWL    WEEK
PMH/PML    MONTH
-----------------------------------------------------
PDV   PREVIOUS DAY VWAP
PWV/PMV  WEEK/MONTH
-----------------------------------------------------
PDO  PREV DAY OPEN
PDC   PREV  DAY CLOSE
PWO/PWC  WEEK
PMO/PMC   MONTH
---------------------------------------------------------
ORB   OPEN RANGE BAR(CANDLE)
30/60 is what I prefer
** Its good to mark this Open Rannge
  I use a Box. Also I've used 'Price lev Lines
    or Alert Lines
OBG   OPEN BODY GAP-
   With Open Body Gap, U are more focused on the
    Body Close on Bar, as opposed to Using the Wik
     Length to consider a Gap ''Filled'
---------------------------------------------------------------
 GZF   GAP ZONE FILL
    With GZF, U are focused on any activity that enters the
    Gap Zone and Taps the top or bottom, But the body
    of the bar does not have to close above/ or below,
    it only has to Tap the top or bottom of Wick-
       So it's Wik 2 Wik , not body 2 body.
*** I prefer,and only considered a True Gap Fill when
        the  BODY closes, nullifying the Gap.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Know your ATR's

" KNOW  YER ATR  OR IT'S LIKELY  YOU WONT GET VERY FAR.... Author- Known.


We are in a Range Trading Market, I'm finding use Range Fibz for Outer Shell is very helpful. That said, how can one trade in a range market if they do not know the ATR(Average Trading Range) of the vehicles that they are trading.
  One thing to know,when plotting ATR, is that during eps season you can get dramatic moves that can 'skew' the software depending on the length of your study. In that case you may temporarily add the difference between the high/low of day before eps release, compare it to ATR, If divergent enough,you may want to wait a week or so, for an adjusted new ATR.
   ie 1)  Stock :  ABCD   has 14d(or whatever u use) of 4.5. Post eps the stock had a 4.5 move. Well, I dont believe there is a need to adjust ATR because post hrs, is just another session, and actually the stock adhered to its Simple ATR. 
   ie  2) Stock ABCD has an ATR of 6.5. Post eps, Stock moves 13 pts. well besides the obvious math that, it doubled the ATR on eps, It 'should still take time to re-adjust If you are using ATR as a major variable in your trading.  
  Maybe it re-settles. In general, always do a year ATR to start, then 6mo, then 3mo etc, down to a rolling 14d(usually a good bar for day trading)

BELOW  I've Listed Curr 14d ATR for our Usual suspects:

SPY   3.71
IWM   2.54
QQQ   2.41
IBB     11.60

AAPL   2.89
AMZN 20.55
BIDU   7.20
FB        3.22
NFLX   5.93
GOOGL  19.5
TSLA    9.12


BP'S  ATR  RULE : ADD/SUBTRACT FROM OPEN   OR ADD SUBTRACT FROM OPEN RANGE HIGH/LOW


**My  guess is many are as surprised with the size of these mathematically calculated numbers( as they are not an opinion, they are absolute), as I am.  

Recently due to the complexity of this mkt, I have rolled back to indicators and math absolutes that I use to focus on more consistently. 

Hope this helps, Peacz



Saturday, January 16, 2016

RANGE FIBZ P/W and Rez up, Targets Dwn Annotated Clean

  ** Please use SPY Annotations as Legend

SPY  QQQ  IWM   IBB  AAPL   AMZN  FB  NFLX   TSLA  

SPY  

185.52  PIVOT
183.32  TGT1  181.95  TGT2
189.09  FTR  38.2
190.19  50% REZ
VWAP  190.4

 191.29 PIVOT REZ












QQQ

99.51  L.O.W. PIVOT

97.94  TGT1

96.96  TGT2

102.06  FTR  38.2

103.02   VWAP

102.39  50%

103.63  PIVOT REZ  61.8
 

 








IWM

97.51  PIVOT
95.74  TGT1
94.65  TGT2
100.37  FTR
101.25  50%
101.38  VWAP
102.13  PIV REZ











IBB
273.47  L.O.W PIVOT
285.46  FTR
288.5  VWAP
289.17  50%
292.87  PIV REZ











AAPL
95.36  PIVOT
97.59  FTR
98.28  50%
98.32  VWAP
98.96  PIV REZ












AMZN
PIVOT  565.3
**569.17 61.8 from Aug lows t Hi
588.48  FTR
594.45 VWAP
595.65  50%
602.81  PIV REZ  61.8 











FB  
92.45  L.O.W  PIVOT

90.53  TGT1

89.34   TGT2

95.56  FTR

95.52  50%

96.64   VWAP

97.47  PIV REZ
 








NFLX  
101.21  L.O.W. PIVOT
97.34  TGT1
94.94   TGT2
107.48  FTR
109.42 50%
109.56 VWAP
111.35  PIV REZ










GOOG 
685.37  L.O.W PIVOT
673.9  TGT1 
666.46  TGT2
704.28   FTR
708.45  VWAP
710.12  50% REZ
715.96  PIV REZ



 GOOGL
 701.51  L.O.W.PIVOT
689.36  TGT1
681.84  TGT2
721.18  FTR
726.5  VWAP
727.3  50%
733.33   PIV REZ 









TSLA

193.38 PIVOT
188.42  TGT1
185.35  TGT2
201.41  FTR
203.85  50%
204.01  VWAP
206.37  PIV REZ  61.8%




Will AMZN see a 1year 61.8% Retracemnt ? Will AMZN Split now?

  

IF THE MKT Continues to Correct , I think it's not far fetched-


A few weeks ago, I was going to suggest that AMZN could see the 400's, and I actually thought it was likely. Based on the SPX currently sitting slightly below a 2 year 61.8%, I don't see how this stock, now the upper range of a 5 year bull run has been chopped up, has not even hit the 1 year 38.2% Retracemnt yet.( $539.37). << Which is Also the 200d  540.57>>
Certainly seems likely to at least tap that one.
  Below are the 1Year AMZN FIBZ  & as well as the All Time Low to All Time High Retracement levels.


2015  Simple VWAP = 480 (app as I'm using a simple calculation giving equal weighting to each month-)

  ** p.s  I wonder if  AMZN will announce a split this eps, now that the Mo has dried to upside,dump sum shares on current holders-  Maybe a 3:1- just a guess-






Sunday, January 10, 2016

FIBZ IN 7 SUNDAY 1/10/2016

WEEKLY RANGE FIBZ


A quick' vid describing the Fib RANGE of last Week with Pivots, Supp/Rez and sum clarity

Bloody as it wazzzz


 http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/cDV6q0hkKm