Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Know your ATR's

" KNOW  YER ATR  OR IT'S LIKELY  YOU WONT GET VERY FAR.... Author- Known.


We are in a Range Trading Market, I'm finding use Range Fibz for Outer Shell is very helpful. That said, how can one trade in a range market if they do not know the ATR(Average Trading Range) of the vehicles that they are trading.
  One thing to know,when plotting ATR, is that during eps season you can get dramatic moves that can 'skew' the software depending on the length of your study. In that case you may temporarily add the difference between the high/low of day before eps release, compare it to ATR, If divergent enough,you may want to wait a week or so, for an adjusted new ATR.
   ie 1)  Stock :  ABCD   has 14d(or whatever u use) of 4.5. Post eps the stock had a 4.5 move. Well, I dont believe there is a need to adjust ATR because post hrs, is just another session, and actually the stock adhered to its Simple ATR. 
   ie  2) Stock ABCD has an ATR of 6.5. Post eps, Stock moves 13 pts. well besides the obvious math that, it doubled the ATR on eps, It 'should still take time to re-adjust If you are using ATR as a major variable in your trading.  
  Maybe it re-settles. In general, always do a year ATR to start, then 6mo, then 3mo etc, down to a rolling 14d(usually a good bar for day trading)

BELOW  I've Listed Curr 14d ATR for our Usual suspects:

SPY   3.71
IWM   2.54
QQQ   2.41
IBB     11.60

AAPL   2.89
AMZN 20.55
BIDU   7.20
FB        3.22
NFLX   5.93
GOOGL  19.5
TSLA    9.12


BP'S  ATR  RULE : ADD/SUBTRACT FROM OPEN   OR ADD SUBTRACT FROM OPEN RANGE HIGH/LOW


**My  guess is many are as surprised with the size of these mathematically calculated numbers( as they are not an opinion, they are absolute), as I am.  

Recently due to the complexity of this mkt, I have rolled back to indicators and math absolutes that I use to focus on more consistently. 

Hope this helps, Peacz



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