Happy Sunday and God Bless

IWM Topped out ?

FIBZ Resistance shows very cautious picture- Dead on Resistance, will Support purty far away-
Buy some UVXY ?  Hmmmm

click link for view

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/4671ffb9-d750-442d-bad9-33034604cd27/2014-11-29_2139.png

U S O which way 2 go ?

Video analysis - week ahead and  years behind-

http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/c2XvVlerGC

VLO will it reclaim 50/200dMAs? or hit Downside targets

VLO has closed below many MAs, 50,200,21,If can reclaim those,still faces resistance,if not, I expect more gaps downward-


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/a5d2c0c1-f274-4399-94b4-e85cf6815829/2014-11-29_1914.png

OIL & STOX and Historical relationship and Energy ( Gaps)

Great lil read

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/whats-effect-oil-stock-prices/


http://peterlbrandt.com/gap-energy-prices-reminds-worst-trade-ever/

XOM patience?

If u have not entered any tier( naked), This may be a place to consider-

Look left to see right-


CLICK LINK, Chart too large for space

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/44c26607-f269-4551-ae63-a2f9fb2e85d1/2014-11-28_1801.png

XLE -yup a disaster(unless you've had patience ?)

Last big drop to this zone came a very profitable run

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/44c26607-f269-4551-ae63-a2f9fb2e85d1/2014-11-28_1801.png

A Different Type of Thanks

CTRP RECLAIMS the 50% YTD support, how bout dem pumpkins

Page back and see what I was looking for. Mind you, this is not sum ego magic, its the absolute of Mathematical Measured Moves give way to Probability.

FIBZ Nailed the Lowz and showed a test on the 50% , and the stock reclaimed-
Bullish.

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/5b0ae9a9-243d-4a16-8108-319a72f4b3a0/2014-11-26_2119.png

CTRP EPS Miss/DwnGrade 2nd Support was Gr8t Entry

Last nt I'd drawn these YTD FIBZ
This am it tapped 61.8% Buy Zone#2 48.86 and is Now $52. The old 50% support of 52.86 becomes the Pivot- Fail or Reclaim

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/9fa65eda-88e7-4e0e-8c2d-abbc2d0b8ff8/2014-11-26_0851.png

UTX Monthly FIBZ

I have not traded, yet threw some FIBZ on and wish I had-


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/19d35ad8-e00f-4300-b0d1-367a3ba8d5ee/2014-11-25_2057.png

IPO Dump fest HABT EYES

CLICK LINK


http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/c2XOcOeY9g

CYBR Major failure and why u use stops

Where we are now- new Targets 60min and DAILY dotted lines, Resistances= 50/61.8% on both time frames

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/6427aca8-c5f5-4827-bf3c-e1a8cbebe78e/2014-11-25_1851.png








http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/84361d00-fca4-44f8-9300-ba64188714af/2014-11-25_1848.png

CYBR Holding 50%,61.8% p/b Supp 60 min

Downgraded this am Nomura-

Measured Move from yday based on 60 min time frame- 
supps=44.68, 44.23   47.51 was tagrt, missed it by 6 pennies-

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/0416f987-294c-4591-abb1-d3695d0ff677/2014-11-25_0842.png

ES Updated FIBZ GreenWon

Updated at 10 pm- u could have taken tomoro off- 8^)

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/6c721aa6-2aae-48dc-9e3e-5737970badd5/2014-11-23_2203.png

ES Current. Will Update tomoro.

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/dfc208f1-c0be-4038-8b25-3ae92fcc2c34/2014-11-23_1951.png

B I D U trying here, +5 -5 imo

CLICK LINK FOR VIEW

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/b2f9905b-1317-4cec-a875-be0ca93870d0/2014-11-23_1847.png

BNO a True Trend Reversal ??

Looks very interesting- again pointed out to me from a friend at stockbee


CLICK LINK


http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/c2X0b3eYi6

HCLP Ready for another run ? Pullback first ?

Was brought to my attention from a fellow trader (stockbee forum-good people there)

I did a vid to explain what I see as per measure moves and d' FIBZ


http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/c2X3rmeqWY

INSTITUTIONS vrs DAY/PROP TRADERS Vol. I

I thought I'd document my thoughts on the differences(mainly) between Institutional Trading( and some Vanilla or Value Hedge Fund) 
verses  Day or Prop or even Fast money Hedge Fund trading-

I have 21+ years in the business starting as a market maker, firm capital position trading,institutional coverage , moving on to direct institutional trading and now proprietary.

I think there are some misunderstandings about how the 'Big Boys' enter and exit trades or very large positions and what they want to see occur out of the gate verses a DT.

For purposes of having to keep typing 'Institutions and constantly getting hit w/ spell check for missing a 't' or 'u' , we will use PM(portfolio managers) and DT(day traders) PT(prop traders) :

    SCENARIO I :
PM wants to Buy/Sell :

When entering into a new large position or adding to existing ones(in most cases* will explain*),
a PM 'actually wants the stock to start coming in so they can scale. The last thing they want to see happen is have the stock go right up as soon as they've entered the market and began buying thus forcing them to pay up or chase knowing they have likely bought only a small fraction of a large(likely 7 or multiple 7 figure order.)

   ie). PM has 2.4mm ABC to buy. ABC trades 500-1mm a day(less or more etc)
                ABC is 35.50-35.52.  Current Volume= 280k.
                 --Sends broker or enters market him/herself electronically..dark pool etc
   a) Broker may or may not stop the PM on 50k on the offer(more less or none at all)-
           Broker'shops' whole or part of order to their other 'trusted' customers. Suddenly the stock is          35.70-35.72 on little volume. Depending on agency,net or whatever the details of the order are,the broker may have to put that print to the tape.(Mind you,all this likely happend within minutes of broker receiving order.
           The Broker prints the 50k @ 35.52(sld" or however the rule/type of order it is) and the stock is now $36 bid.
   So what was accomplished ? The PM bought 50k @ 35.52 and only has 2.35mm left to buy and now stock has moved 1.5% against them. PM is LIVID at Broker.

ENTER THE DAY TRADER:
  A Day Trader buys stock at 35.52 and is 36 bid almost immediately. WOOHOO!! And the heard of sheep commence buying and stock is 37- and 'There must be news !??' etc etc- Visions of  Happy Hour dancing in their heads !!

  > Now of course there could have been another PM 'Seller' on other side and the Broker's 'shop may have worked and the sides play nice,cross stock relatively in line give or take several 20 cent moves in which a DT is getting stopped out left and right by the volume algos-

The PM could have also entered the market via internal firm OMS or Dark Pools and either scenario may have or have not taken place regardless.

The point of this tidbit is that the Last thing a PM wants, when trying to find liquidity for a size order is Market Impact. Whereas the DT is hoping for Immediate Market Impact( in their favor of course)

This is not to bash Day or Prop Traders( being that I am one), it's to point out How PMs trade the bigger picture. 

Also it's not to say that's the only way  DT's  trade. Matter of fact, more and more DT'/PT's have very calculated and studied methodology loaded with creativity and solid thought out processes.
Very very difficult profession indeed. Huge failure rate, but i digress.

So  "Vol. I"  is to point out the difference of a DT wanting the trade to immediately go their way verses a PM in which case "going their way"  means buying a stock and having it continually, methodically going lower to improve their average knowing they have a lot more to buy(in most cases).
   We call that "AMMUNITION" . 
In most almost all cases DT/PTs don't have near the Ammo that a PM has.(Otherwise they wouldn't be considered a DT in most cases.)

>>>The same applies on the Selling side of a PM order or Shorting side of a DT order.
If a PM wants to Sell Large Position, last thing he wants to see is the stock immediately move lower, Unlike to DT taking on a new Short.

Vol. II to come.

Peace,

BP

GPRO whats the 'Picture ?

This vid is talking GoPro only where we are and where we may 'Go'

CLICK LINK

http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/c2X3FEeqRO

NBG 'Is Greece the Word ?'

This is a real quick 2 min vid explaining why NBG may be a huge profitable trade, although I'd like a pullbak before entry-

*note I say "NGB" at start- the 'doh' factor- but its worth the watch inho

peacez

**ps I am not in it yet but some smart guys from stockbee forum are- no surprise, real talented traders there-


CLICK LINK BELOW

http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/c2X3bleq9Y

BABA Many GAPS Left to fill?

 Well BABA has filled about 40% of the Gaps on the run to the upside since IPO. The next lots of gaps await under par.

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/d6f057a7-844f-449e-a416-934dd2e6cc5d/2014-11-22_1050.png

EYES HABT SPLK SPY 4 FOR 4

Video explains what the levels mean/meant and also how I didnt trade them well myself-- Lacked Patience and Discipline - But they were good profitable inflection points-



http://screencast-o-matic.com/watch/c2X3cveqMA

Some Retracement pot buy areas i am looking at SPY EYES HABT SPLK

CLICK ON LINK FOR VIEW

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/20836d3a-0bb4-41e7-840f-7361a5aa5f4e/2014-11-21_0853.png

S P Y My Levels = $$

If u bot at my BUY Signals, pre-posted u had about $1 gain in trading S P Y intra day


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/1511b6f9-73dd-4781-84c5-b368731f872a/2014-11-19_1954.png

VA screencast issue, weird but here is chart

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/9579b426-ae2c-461e-afd1-da1f1c1c57e0/2014-11-19_1832.png

BITA also in retracement BUY ZONE (imho)

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/6134569e-9127-4353-8531-849c25f58ffe/2014-11-19_1755.png

VA (Virgin Branson Airlines) has come to 50% LAND

from IPO to ATH -

is it a ''BUY BUY BUY..."   ??

I like it , we'll see-


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/d3467693-cf3a-4ba3-b094-c79c3acb2917/2014-11-19_1617.png

VIPS Updated BOOM !! Nailed Lows for Nice profitable bounce!

click link to see butt killer PRE POSTED Buy levels(bettr view)


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/23bf5a0f-fb9a-44ff-bf60-63c2961c238d/2014-11-19_1641.png

VIPS EPS Levels going into EPS

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/07c4103f-7780-456c-aa8a-eb9898209e55/2014-11-18_1552.png

URBN riding the -23.6%

It's tru, found Fibanocci Support and ridin the rails rt now-

http://screencast.com/t/i2cANlr3D


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/9dc27858-abb2-40c1-8874-6d7b40145bc3/2014-11-17_1939.png

SPY Update, as well, and FIBZ 'did well

the Power of FIBZ. If u bought in the '50%/61.8%, / GAP ZONE- Posted before the fact

U did just fine today-  8^)

ES (late Update) but NICE Move off My Levels, huh

You can see-

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/d50927d7-0d0a-449c-8c3d-4c28e51bb6cb/2014-11-17_1846.png


 

ES ( Sunday nt Sell Off Futures)

Right now at the bottom of support based on 15 min time frame-

Will see what happens tomoro- but any Big Dip 'has been' a buying op.

FIG , poised for a Big move ??

Complete Analysis from ATH( which wasn't even the same company,basically, pre-financial crisis)
to where we are today. The annotated charts consist of measured moves on longer term monthly basis(for a cleaner look-without daily noise, To where we are today, including that daily noise-

 NEW WEEKLY TARGETS= 8.25 and 8.57 based on recent low to current high- The underlying charts on this post book end the Reality of the stock-

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/f84d61c7-e6a0-41b8-aeac-4f229403a3b1/2014-11-16_2047.png







 The MONTHLY View from 2012, notice the 37% Gain had You FIB'd this correctly -

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/bfe37589-7bf0-40a6-b894-afa4aa88588b/2014-11-16_2010.png








 2012 Low to ATH -Please click on link as draw does not border this blog correctly

 http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/9e626921-c046-4a9e-9647-0c9a869b6be3/2014-11-16_1942.png







WHERE WE ARE TODAY

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/48327acc-d01f-4863-b03c-5670dc98c569/2014-11-16_1952.png

SPY a clean look at levels to watch for Monday

Based on Thursday's swing-

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/c948d9f3-3f3c-4bf7-b12c-b7086e112679/2014-11-16_1303.png

SPY Gap tap, Support Bounce, Rejection of Target- FIBZ

SPY Here we are

Based on 2 day Measured Move, tapping Yesterday's Low, and 50% Retracement-
Also Note Rejection off Yesterday's High and Rejection of Targets- Clockwork
Do we Hold ?

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/bfb2cc56-514c-4b8f-a584-d55b1db07225/2014-11-13_1336.png

BBRY , though after the fact

Although BBRY has made a great move, especially today( based on news w/ Samsung et al), the technicals were telling. There have been many pullbacks and consolidation (shown in circles and squares for purposes here) followed by moves higher. Of course you can say that about the market in general right ?

The draw below captures 6 month Measured Move exhibiting one of my favorite tools, the 50%-61.8% Retracement for a test and move higher.

The Volume has picked up the past few sessions as well. Hmmm.


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/2dc4efc8-5692-430d-b318-2f0c3a2ecd2c/2014-11-13_1310.png

SPY Updated, how bout that ?

The Gap from previous post showed a small gap that I mentioned may be tapped today, and it has been, even though market looked like 205 was coming. It still is likely that the targets get hit, whether today or ... is the question. No one really knows right? All we can do is use our technicals to point out Probability of price/action - Measured move Projections-
 Love this stuff.



http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/9b18565c-6898-40b2-8894-26ab66e4aae8/2014-11-13_1145.png

SPY Still very Strong, New targets

These Targets continue to get hit, and often will pause, pullback and move higher. Previous 2 targets were 204.38 and 204.59- We are currently trading 204.75, with 204.95 and 205.34 for next Targets-

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/cc9bb848-77ed-455e-8255-58ac98dade2e/2014-11-13_1036.png

NTAP, Watch for 39.50ish

YTD 50% RET and 2nd Supp is 38.09/61.8%

I'm looking for a bounce off 50% or a breakthru,hold of 61.8% and Reclaiming 50% again for a strong move higher-


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/c0d1db21-dd56-414c-8639-28ec291fa897/2014-11-12_2017.png

JCP and live look how it surfs along various Supports

Trading now A/H , hugging supports

JCP Supports Post EPS Drop

 Both YTD 50%/61.8% supports and recent measured move supports


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/c36a6d2e-6abc-4826-b6e1-87efe2b15de7/2014-11-12_1944.png

PLUG Misses and Drops thru Sum Supports

PLUG , hard to stay positive when they keep repeating 'eh type results-

So it has dropped back in the box , a pretty long previous consolidation zone-
Technically, I 'guess' if hold the box, maybe sideways, if drops below, then maybe 3.80ish-
New Resistance levels become 4.87 and 5.04 ( based on my own draws )

click link for larger view

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/6e9c84ce-4e7e-4bf4-b6bb-6659b51a5b2f/2014-11-12_1058.png

CSCO one look from past

YTD Custom FIBZ Draw - Again, watching the longer term 50% Retracement and how the stock reacts to it on a pullback. I like to think of the 61.8%  as an oversold zone. I have often seen stocks violate the 50%, rest at 61.8% and then reclaim the 50% for a strong move higher- Cool stuff-


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/661b661c-e539-446d-928d-7d6056d518c4/2014-11-12_1033.png

PLUG EPS Tomor

Let's see what happens with eps





http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/424e936f-0aff-4713-9933-a365a5446a0b/2014-11-11_2010.png

BABA , Next LEVELS ?

Some Inflection Levels


 http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/ee48d306-c048-49f1-a599-0c9ca72a2d9b/2014-11-11_1922.png

SPY Strong, paused at "Reflection Zones ? 8^)

I may have to change the name of (probable) REJECTION Zones to REFLECTION Zones -

Market seems very strong, New targets likely to get hit In my opinion-

 http://screencast.com/t/xc8jM3sV4

BABA Gap Filled, many to Go ?

Currently at Support, but a gap below could see consecutive downside sessions- just my opinion


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/9ed54565-1870-4cd0-bf0e-e84ddef7c163/2014-11-11_1907.png

Gappy BABA attempting to fill Latest Gap

Many more to fill, but interesting how slipping below previous Rejection zone of 117ish, with new 50% support 115.60,in a gap zone and has tapped and bounced- as behavior occurs with measured moves-


http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/451a0a26-849a-433f-a5bb-f497eec81539/2014-11-11_1028.png

Gappy BABA and 40ty thieves

Very exciting indeed, but Open Body Gap Theory states that 'All gaps get filled eventually'

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/d24d8973-a051-429d-ad02-34456de1acf9/2014-11-10_1516.png

PLUG on the Move

Click link for larger view

http://content.screencast.com/users/MrSoul70/folders/Jing/media/c4383f18-74eb-4b27-9b84-d783b3a6e5a2/2014-11-09_1543.png